Bitcoin’s (BTC) slide to as little as $60,233 in a single day, earlier than recovering considerably to $65,443, has left a lot of the largest pure-play Bitcoin treasury corporations deeply underwater on their holdings, with mixed unrealized losses approaching $10 billion throughout eight entities that collectively management greater than 850,000 BTC.
The reckoning hits hardest on the prime. Technique, previously MicroStrategy, holds 713,502 BTC at a mean price foundation of $76,047 per coin, leading to an unrealized lack of $6.85 billion at present costs.
That is a 12.6% drawdown on a treasury value $47.4 billion at spot, however the firm’s scale means each $1,000 transfer in Bitcoin’s value swings its paper place by $713.5 million.
Metaplanet, the Japanese resort agency turned Bitcoin accumulator, sits $1.45 billion underwater on 35,102 BTC acquired at a mean of $107,716. Its 38.3% unrealized loss displays the timing threat related to late-2024 and early-2025 purchases made close to all-time highs.
Twenty One Capital studies a $906.7 million paper loss on 43,514 BTC bought at $87,280.37, leaving it 23.9% underwater. The worth thought-about is derived from a July 29, 2025, submitting with the US Securities and Change Fee.
The dataset, sourced from Bitcoin Treasuries, tracks solely corporations whose enterprise mannequin facilities completely on Bitcoin accumulation.
Coinbase, Tesla, and different companies with diversified operations do not qualify, making this a pure check of conviction versus price foundation.
Seven of the eight names analyzed are at the moment underwater. The only real exception is Subsequent, which bought 5,833 BTC at $35,670.09 and nonetheless holds an unrealized achieve of 86.3% ($179.5 million).
The mNAV compression threat
Market-to-net-asset-value ratios add a reflexive dimension to the ache. Metaplanet trades at an mNAV of 1.018, primarily in step with its BTC holdings, whereas Technique’s 0.784 a number of implies the market values its fairness at a 21.6% low cost to its Bitcoin treasury.
Nakamoto, with 5,398 BTC and a 0.329 mNAV, trades at a 67% low cost regardless of holding cash acquired at $119,729, representing a 44.5% unrealized loss.
This divergence issues as a result of underwater treasuries usually want both premium mNAV multiples or dilutive fairness raises to maintain accumulating. In drawdowns, markets sometimes demand the alternative: wider reductions and better hurdle charges for brand new capital.
Corporations that stay worthwhile, akin to Subsequent, retain optionality. They’ll maintain, understand positive factors to fund operations, or deploy proceeds defensively.
Names 40% underwater face a unique calculus: holding turns into a compelled guess that Bitcoin rebounds earlier than financing home windows shut.
The incremental injury
The present $65,443 value is 51% beneath Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak of $126,000, a part of a broader crypto market drawdown that has erased almost $2 trillion in worth.
Earlier this week, $2.5 billion in Bitcoin liquidations accelerated the deleveraging, and Monetary Instances famous rising prediction-market odds of a sub-$60,000 end result.
Stifel’s technical fashions flag $38,000 as a cycle-style crash goal primarily based on trendline help.
If Bitcoin sees a sustained drop beneath $60,000, a 9% decline from present ranges, Technique’s incremental loss deepens by $4.6 billion, Metaplanet’s by $226 million, and Twenty One Capital’s by $280 million.
At $50,000, these figures balloon to $11.73 billion, $577 million, and $715 million, respectively.
A slide to $38,000 would impose a further $20.29 billion loss on Technique alone, past the $6.85 billion it is already underwater.
Try, holding 13,132 BTC at a $105,850 foundation, would see its $517.5 million present loss broaden by $373.5 million if Bitcoin hits $38,000.
ProCap’s 5,000 BTC, bought at $104,219.34, would deepen its $188.9 million underwater place by a further $142 million.
Even Subsequent, nonetheless worthwhile at present costs, would give up $165.9 million of its $179.5 million paper achieve if Bitcoin falls to $38,000, leaving it barely above break-even.
| Firm | BTC held | ΔP/L to $60,000 | ΔP/L to $50,000 | ΔP/L to $38,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nakamoto | 5,398 | -$0.03B | -$0.09B | -$0.15B |
| Subsequent | 5,833 | -$0.04B | -$0.10B | -$0.17B |
| ProCap | 5,000 | -$0.03B | -$0.08B | -$0.14B |
| Try | 13,132 | -$0.08B | -$0.22B | -$0.37B |
| Metaplanet | 35,102 | -$0.23B | -$0.58B | -$1.00B |
| Twenty One Capital (XXI) | 43,514 | -$0.28B | -$0.72B | -$1.24B |
| Technique | 713,502 | -$4.60B | -$11.73B | -$20.29B |
| Cohort whole (ex-Bitcoin Customary) | 821,481 | -$5.29B | -$13.51B | -$23.37B |
| Technique share of cohort incremental loss | 86.9% | 86.9% | 86.9% |
ETF outflows and the distribution shift
The drawdown coincides with a structural shift in Bitcoin distribution.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which gathered aggressively via 2024 and early 2025, have seen web outflows in current weeks as institutional allocators rotate towards safer belongings.
That movement reversal removes a key purchaser bloc that beforehand absorbed provide strain, leaving treasury corporations because the dominant diamond-hands cohort.
However “diamond arms” is a story, not a financing technique. Corporations accumulating through convertible debt or fairness raises face rising prices and shrinking mNAV premiums.
Metaplanet’s 1.018 a number of provides it equity-issuance capability close to parity with BTC holdings.
Technique’s 0.784 means each greenback raised through fairness prices 1.27 {dollars} of Bitcoin worth on a look-through foundation.
Nakamoto’s 0.329 a number of turns fairness raises right into a 3-to-1 dilution tax.
Reflexivity lure
The hazard is not solely the mark-to-market loss but additionally the suggestions loop.
Underwater treasuries compress mNAV multiples, elevating the price of new capital, slowing accumulation, weighing on fairness sentiment, and compressing multiples additional.
Corporations with excessive price bases purchased into energy. If Bitcoin continues to fall, they purchased into the highest of a cycle.
Twenty One Capital’s $87,280.37 foundation, disclosed in SEC filings, sits 24% above present costs however 13% beneath Technique’s $76,047 common. It turns into a matter of timing, not conviction.
ProCap’s estimated $104,219.34 foundation and Try’s $105,850 cluster in the identical late-2024 shopping for window. All three are actually 36-37% underwater, that means they would want Bitcoin to rally above $91,000 to interrupt even, a 37% achieve from present ranges.
What occurs at $38,000
If Stifel’s $38,000 goal materializes, the mixture loss for these eight treasuries would exceed $25 billion in incremental injury from immediately’s ranges.
Technique alone would lead to a $20.29 billion hit on prime of its present $6.85 billion paper loss, bringing whole unrealized losses to $27.14 billion. Metaplanet could be almost $2.5 billion underwater whole, whereas Twenty One Capital would strategy $2.2 billion.
At that value, even Subsequent would fall in need of breakeven, erasing its $179.5 million cushion. Your complete cohort could be underwater, with no optionality aside from to carry and look forward to a restoration that markets are more and more pricing as unsure.
Pure Bitcoin treasuries guess that conviction plus scale equals compounding.
When Bitcoin rises, leverage amplifies positive factors and mNAV multiples broaden, turning fairness right into a name choice on BTC with embedded financing arbitrage. When Bitcoin falls, the identical leverage turns paper losses into financing constraints and a number of compressions right into a reflexive lure.
The present $65,443 value would not erase the thesis. As a substitute, it stress-tests it.
Technique’s $6.85 billion unrealized loss represents 12.6% of its BTC worth, a determine that might be tolerable if Bitcoin rebounds. If it would not, the query turns into: at what value does underwater develop into unsustainable, and who decides when conviction turns into capitulation?
For now, the market has rendered its verdict via mNAV: premiums for worthwhile treasuries, reductions for underwater ones, and steep reductions for these with out clear exit ramps.
The paper loss leaderboard is not static. It recalibrates with each $1,000 transfer in Bitcoin, and the subsequent leg down will decide whether or not these treasuries are worth traps or cycle survivors.
